Use of prior knowledge to inform restoration projects in estuaries of GOM

July 28, 2017

# randomize author order
aut <- c('Marcus Beck', 'Kirsten Dorans', 'Jessica Renee Henkel', 'Kathryn Ireland', 'Ed Sherwood', 'Patricia Varela') %>% 
  sample %>% 
  paste(collapse = ', ')

cat('By', aut)

By Jessica Renee Henkel, Kathryn Ireland, Kirsten Dorans, Ed Sherwood, Marcus Beck, Patricia Varela

Deepwater Horizon Settlement Agreement

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Over $10B in Potential Restoration Activities

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Cumulative Effects of Restoration Activities?

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  • Vision to make it portable
  • Why Bayesian networks

Benefits

  • A general and flexible framework that can be applied to unique locations and is not limited by data availability
  • Explicit quantification of uncertainty and model updates with new data
  • More focused restoration towards specific regional issues
  • Improved ability to predict outcomes of proposed restoration projects

Tampa Bay was gross

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Tampa Bay is not as gross

Tampa Bay is not as gross

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But how much less gross??

But how much less gross??

Ed

  • Tampa Bay Background

Tampa Bay Data Sources

  • Rich WQ Monitoring Datatset (1974-)
    • Chlorophyll, salinity, dissolved oxygen, etc.
    • Depth-integrated
    • QAQC
  • Time series, monthly step - ~500 obs. per site

Tampa Bay Restoration Sites

  • Restoration sites in Tampa Bay, watershed
    • Habitat Establishment
    • Habitat Enhancement
    • Habitat Protection
    • Stormwater Controls
    • Point Source Controls
  • 571 projects, 1971 - 2016

Workflow

Kirsten/Katie

  • Model diagram
  • Merging restoration diagram

Data plyring

  • Can we identify a change in water quality from restoration?
  • What data do we have?
  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • Can we plyr the data as input to a BN?

Data plyring

Water quality stations and restoration sites

  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • How can continuous water quality be linked to discrete restoration activites?

Data plyring

Water quality stations and restoration sites

  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • How can continuous water quality be linked to discrete restoration activites?
  • Consider an effect of site type?

Data plyring

Water quality stations and restoration sites

  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • How can continuous water quality be linked to discrete restoration activites?
  • Consider an effect of site type?
  • Consider distance of sites from water quality stations?

Data plyring

Water quality stations and restoration sites

  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • How can continuous water quality be linked to discrete restoration activites?
  • Consider an effect of site type?
  • Consider distance of sites from water quality stations?
  • Consider a cumulative effect?

Data plyring

Water quality stations and restoration sites

  • Can we plyr the data to identify a signal?
  • How can continuous water quality be linked to discrete restoration activites?
  • Consider an effect of site type?
  • Consider distance of sites from water quality stations?
  • Consider a cumulative effect?

Bayesian Network

Patricia

  • Specifics of BN
  • Outcomes/interpretation/applications

Conclusion

  • Next steps (all)